Hurricane Trudy seems to weaken sharply before brushing Mexico’s Pacific coast

Hurricane Trudy lost much of its strength on Friday as it crept toward Mexico’s Pacific coast, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). The NHC’s advisory 13, issued at 9:00 AM CST (8:00 AM PT), put Trudy’s maximum sustained winds near 120 mph, a major hurricane. By 3:00 PM CST (2:00 PM PT), advisory 14 put them near 85 mph, a Category 1 storm, based on reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft. In the matching forecast discussion, the NHC wrote that “The reasons for this weakening are speculative,” and said its new intensity forecast “has major reductions in intensity compared to the previous forecast.” Mexico’s government still extended its hurricane warning along the coast, the NHC reports.

The NHC’s own advisories trace the swing. Advisory 11, issued at 9:00 PM CST Thursday, put Trudy near 105 mph and said rapid intensification lay ahead. At 3:00 AM CST Friday, discussion 12 reported that Trudy “has rapidly strengthened into a major hurricane overnight,” with an eye about 15 nautical miles wide. By 9:00 AM, discussion 13 said Trudy’s intensification “has again paused,” with the eye less distinct, though it still expected a major hurricane near the coast and showed a forecast peak of 140 mph. A noon intermediate advisory cut the winds to 110 mph, citing satellite wind data. At 12:35 PM CST, a special update reported that the aircraft found Trudy much weaker, with winds near 85 mph and a central pressure of 982 mb, against 956 mb in the morning advisory.

Discussion 14 lays out what the NHC saw. It says Trudy’s eye vanished after the previous advisory and that microwave data showed its central convective structure had decayed; a synthetic aperture radar pass near 12Z (5:00 AM PT) showed winds around 80 knots, and the aircraft measured maximum 700-mb flight-level winds of 76 knots. The NHC floats one explanation without settling on it: the slow-moving hurricane “has upwelled cold water underneath it as it crossed the paths of Polo and Rachel.” Reuters reports that Tropical Storm Rachel hit the Baja California peninsula last week, damaging 1,500 homes, according to Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum.

The new forecast peak sits 50 mph below the morning one. Discussion 14 calls for “modest intensification during the first 24 h,” to a peak near 90 mph on Saturday, then steady weakening once Trudy meets strong shear and dry air after about 48 hours; its forecast table shows a remnant low by Wednesday. The NHC says hurricane-force winds extend up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds up to 140 miles (220 km). Mexico’s navy weather service, SEMAR, in a notice issued at 4:00 PM Mexico City time, likewise rates Trudy as Category 1, with sustained winds of 75 knots and gusts of 90 knots, and says ocean and atmospheric conditions favor it keeping that category for the next 36 hours, with waves of 16 to 20 feet near the center.

On the forecast track, the NHC says, Trudy’s center will approach the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico on Saturday and pass near the coast Saturday night into Sunday; discussion 14 puts the center “near or possibly over the coast of west-central Mexico” at about the 48-hour point, around midday Sunday. Earlier on Friday, before the aircraft data, Reuters quoted Fabian Vazquez, head of Mexico’s weather agency, telling a press conference that the forecast did not call for landfall, with Trudy staying very close to the coast, about 60 to 65 km away, and that any shift closer to shore would raise the severity of its impact. EFE, as carried by Infobae, names him as Fabián Vázquez Romaña, general coordinator of the National Meteorological Service (SMN), and says he had warned at the morning presidential press conference that Trudy could reach Category 4 before nearing Colima and Jalisco on Sunday. Fox Weather says landfall remains possible and quotes its forecast center: “Some forecast models even show a possible landfall, but confidence in the exact track remains low.”

The Government of Mexico issued a hurricane warning from Manzanillo to Playa Perula on Friday morning (advisory 13) and, by the 3:00 PM CST advisory, extended it north to Cabo Corrientes, according to the NHC. A hurricane watch covers the coast from Manzanillo south to Punta San Telmo, a tropical storm warning runs from Manzanillo south to Zihuatanejo, and a tropical storm watch covers the coast north of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas. The NHC expects hurricane conditions in the warning area by late Saturday or Saturday night and says more watches or warnings will likely follow tonight. Reuters reports that Mexico’s civil protection agency asked residents to prepare by securing doors and windows and removing objects that strong winds could hurl, and EFE says Sheinbaum urged people in alert zones to follow civil protection notices and to go to temporary shelters if they live in risk areas or near riverbeds.

The rain forecast changed little with the wind downgrade. Like advisory 13, advisory 14 calls for 4 to 8 inches through the weekend, with isolated totals around 15 inches along and near the coast in Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco, and says the rain “may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas along steep terrain”; it adds Nayarit to Guerrero on the list of states where outer bands could drop 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6. SEMAR forecasts maximum totals of 150 to 250 mm near the storm and urges coastal residents to take precautions against rising rivers, flooding and landslides in low-lying areas, and EFE says the SMN warned of landslides, rising rivers and streams, overflows and flooding. Reuters notes that storms in recent weeks left several dead and caused severe flooding in the same region, and quotes Vazquez: “The most critical conditions will start on Saturday, with very severe winds and waves along the coast, in an area that has already been affected for several weeks.”

Several Friday reports reflect the stronger storm of the morning. Reuters, in a story first published early Friday, reported that Trudy “rapidly intensified” to winds near 120 mph and quoted Alex DaSilva, a hurricane meteorologist at the private forecaster AccuWeather: “Trudy has the potential to even reach Category 4 or 5 intensity.” Fox Weather’s storm page, last modified at 11:52 AM PT, gives the 85 mph Category 1 figure but still cites the NHC as expecting a major hurricane at closest approach, wording that matches the NHC’s noon advisory rather than the 3:00 PM one. Fox Weather adds that the 2026 eastern Pacific season has surpassed 2018 as the most energetic on record, with more than 319 units of accumulated cyclone energy (ACE).

No source this desk read reports damage or casualties from Trudy so far; at 3:00 PM CST the NHC placed the center about 315 miles (505 km) south-southeast of Manzanillo and 225 miles (365 km) southwest of Acapulco, moving north-northwest near 5 mph. The NHC plans its next full advisory for 9:00 PM CST (8:00 PM PT).

Reading note: this desk wrote from NHC advisories, forecast discussions and a special update (primary U.S. forecasts), a Mexican navy (SEMAR) tropical cyclone notice, Reuters as carried by The Straits Times and KSL, EFE as carried by Infobae, and Fox Weather, not field reporting. Storm forecasts change every few hours, and figures here come from the 3:00 PM CST advisory unless marked earlier. The Reuters and Fox Weather major-hurricane lines predate the aircraft data. This desk translated the Spanish-language EFE and SEMAR texts and paraphrased them rather than quoting them.