Scott Colom holds a 43-vote lead over Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith in Mississippi as thousands of affidavit and mail ballots remain uncounted

Mississippi’s U.S. Senate race stayed uncalled on Wednesday, Nov. 4, with Democrat Scott Colom holding a lead of just a few dozen votes over Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith. Colom had 462,821 votes and Hyde-Smith 462,778, both at 48.9% of the votes counted, with independent Ty Pinkins at 19,935 votes, or 2.1%, according to WDAM in Hattiesburg, which posted the figures at 7:33 a.m. Central (5:33 a.m. PT). HuffPost reported the same totals shortly before 4 a.m. Eastern, and Democracy Docket, citing the Associated Press, put the gap at 43 ballots with 96% of the vote counted as of 3:48 a.m. Magnolia Tribune described the margin as 43 votes with 97% of precincts reporting. By 9 a.m., Colom led by “less than 100 votes in incomplete and unofficial results,” Mississippi Today reported. No news organization this desk read had projected a winner.

The outcome now rests on ballots that election workers have not yet counted. Officials said Tuesday’s scanned ballots and absentee ballots cast in person have all gone through, WAPT in Jackson reported; what remains consists of affidavit ballots and mail ballots postmarked no later than Nov. 3. Voters who could not show ID at the polls cast affidavit ballots, and they must show an approved form of ID at their circuit clerk’s office by Nov. 10 for those votes to count, WAPT wrote. Every county faces a Nov. 10 deadline to count and submit all votes, and the state must certify by Nov. 13, after which a candidate can file a challenge in court. Mississippi Today reported that ballots also remained uncounted in Hinds County, the state’s most populous county and a Democratic stronghold, and in coastal counties where Hyde-Smith has held an edge.

Estimates of the remaining ballots differ by source. WDAM put the figure at an estimated 44,000 votes, “roughly 4% of the expected total votes.” WAPT, in a report updated at 11:22 a.m. Central (9:22 a.m. PT), said “approximately 20,000 ballots” remained. The Colom campaign estimated that 10,000 to 15,000 affidavit ballots remained outstanding, according to Mississippi Today, while the Hyde-Smith campaign said its internal numbers showed she would win. Mail ballots add another unknown. Citing the University of Florida’s Election Lab, Democracy Docket reported that Mississippians requested 123,040 mail ballots and returned 116,453 before Election Day, leaving roughly 6,500 that could still arrive during the state’s five-business-day grace period; Mississippi counted 1,140 late-arriving ballots in 2024, according to VoteBeat as cited by Democracy Docket.

That grace period survived a Supreme Court challenge in June. In Watson v. Republican National Committee, a 5-4 majority rejected the RNC’s argument that federal Election Day laws bar states from accepting ballots that arrive after that date, Democracy Docket reported, quoting Justice Amy Coney Barrett for the majority: “The election-day statutes say nothing about ballot receipt, and we cannot add to the words Congress chose.” Democracy Docket, founded by Democratic election lawyer Marc Elias, disclosed that his firm, the Elias Law Group, represented intervenors in that case; readers should weigh its framing accordingly.

Both candidates predicted victory. Shortly before 11 p.m. Tuesday (9 p.m. PT), Hyde-Smith told supporters at a watch party in Flowood that “we’re in a good lead right now,” Mississippi Today reported, and added: “I assure you I will continue to be your U.S. senator.” WAPT quoted her as saying: “We still don't have all the votes in, so we're not calling all of it tonight.” Colom addressed reporters at his campaign headquarters on Wednesday morning. “I’m very happy with where we stand,” he said, according to Mississippi Today. “I’m confident once the process lays out where the ballots are, we’re going to win, because the people of Mississippi turned out in historic numbers to make this race possible.” Asked about Hyde-Smith having “all but declared victory last night,” Colom replied, “Bless her heart,” in a clip posted on X by @BulwarkClips.

By late morning, Hyde-Smith’s campaign manager, Jake Monssen, issued a statement. “With the vast majority of Election Day ballots reported, the margin is measured in just dozens of votes,” Monssen said, according to Mississippi Today and WAPT. “We have thousands of outstanding ballots, including affidavit and absentee ballots, which still must be processed and verified under Mississippi law.” He added: “We remain confident that when every legally cast vote is fully and accurately counted, Mississippians will have reelected Cindy Hyde-Smith.” Colom said his campaign had deployed attorneys across the state to monitor local officials as they count the remaining ballots, Mississippi Today reported. “We will protect the process of this election,” he said. State Democratic Party chairman Cheikh Taylor urged patience: “Everyone should just hold their horses for a little while and wait for those affidavit votes to come in,” he told WAPT.

A court case over Election Day voting in DeSoto County opened and closed within hours. Late Tuesday, the Mississippi Democratic Party sought emergency relief in DeSoto County Circuit Court over what it called “substantial disruptions to voting at multiple polling places in DeSoto County,” citing “delayed openings of polling places, shortages of official ballots, extraordinary waiting periods, and physical obstructions interfering with access to polling locations,” according to Magnolia Tribune. The party had asked that certain precincts stay open an extra hour, Mississippi Today reported. On Wednesday morning the party moved to dismiss its own suit, and the judge granted the motion, Magnolia Tribune reported. DeSoto, in northwest Mississippi, backed Colom 51.9% to 45.7%, a gap of roughly 3,400 votes, with 99% of precincts reporting, Magnolia Tribune reported.

HuffPost framed the stakes nationally: a Colom win “would be a tremendous upset and mark the eighth Senate seat Democrats have flipped from GOP control during the midterms,” HuffPost wrote. Colom, a district attorney in north Mississippi, would become the first Democrat elected to the U.S. Senate from the state since John Stennis in 1982 and the first Black senator from Mississippi since Reconstruction, when the Legislature chose Hiram Revels in 1870 and Blanche Bruce in 1875, according to Mississippi Today. Hyde-Smith, a Brookhaven cattle farmer, received an appointment to the Senate in 2018 to replace Thad Cochran and beat former Agriculture Secretary Mike Espy twice, the outlet reported. Most forecasters had rated the seat safely Republican; nearly 1 million Mississippians voted, a turnout that rivals presidential years, Mississippi Today wrote.

Outlets describe President Trump’s 2024 margin in the state differently: “more than 20 percentage points” per HuffPost, 22 points per the Guardian’s live blog, and 24 points per Mississippi Today, which quoted former Republican Gov. Haley Barbour at Hyde-Smith’s party: “He isn’t winning by 24 points today.” State Republican chairman Mike Hurst told Mississippi Today that “we are a Republican state.” Because Mississippi sets no automatic recount, a losing candidate would need to ask a judge for one, HuffPost and WDAM reported. This desk will update the story when counties finish counting or a news organization projects a winner.