Cyclone Arnab stalls on the Andhra Pradesh coast in a drawn-out landfall as the state reports 84,396 people evacuated

Cyclone Arnab spent the early hours of Wednesday, Oct. 28, India time, grinding against the coast of Andhra Pradesh, in southeastern India, in a landfall that ran well past the 2 a.m.-to-4 a.m. window the national weather agency had forecast. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said at 1:10 a.m. India time (12:40 p.m. PT Tuesday) that the storm’s wall cloud had begun entering land and that the landfall process “has commenced,” with landfall forecast between 2 a.m. and 4 a.m. India time (1:30 p.m. to 3:30 p.m. PT) somewhere between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam, to the south of Yanam (IMD bulletin 6). The Hindu puts the start of landfall near Narsapur, in West Godavari district, at around 1:30 a.m. (1 p.m. PT), while the paper’s live page cites a start time of about 1:20 a.m. (The Hindu; The Hindu live page).

By 6:30 a.m. India time (6 p.m. PT Tuesday), the IMD’s hourly bulletin described the storm as “Practically Stationary” over the west-central Bay of Bengal close to the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts, about 30 km east of Narsapur, 45 km south-southwest of Yanam and 70 km south-southwest of Kakinada (IMD bulletin 11). The agency put winds near the centre at 115–125 km/h gusting to 140 km/h, down from 125–135 km/h gusting to 150 km/h five hours earlier, and said that “as the system is Practically Stationary,” the landfall process would continue for the next two hours (IMD bulletin 11; IMD bulletin 6). The Hindu’s live page, updated at 7:01 a.m. India time (6:31 p.m. PT), quotes the Met department: “The centre of very severe cyclonic storm Arnab remains very close to the Andhra Pradesh coastline, and the landfall process is continuing” (The Hindu live page).

The IMD’s own analysis pointed to a storm losing some of its punch at the coast. Its overnight advisory said that, on Doppler radar imagery from Machilipatnam at 1800 UTC (11 a.m. PT Tuesday), convection around the wall cloud had dropped significantly and the cyclone’s eye no longer showed, signs that together “signal further weakening of the system,” and put the estimated central pressure at 984 hPa (IMD advisory). The same advisory said dry, cold air over Andhra, Odisha and Chhattisgarh “will lead to rapid weakening of the system after landfall” (IMD advisory). The agency still warned of danger at the shoreline: its 6:30 a.m. bulletin forecast a storm surge of 1 to 1.5 metres above the astronomical tide, likely to flood low-lying areas of Andhra Pradesh over the following three hours, down from the 1.5 to 2.5 metres forecast at 1:10 a.m., when the IMD expected the peak surge near Kakinada and Yanam, a territory of Puducherry (IMD bulletin 11; IMD bulletin 6). The IMD’s national bulletin listed the impacts it expected over coastal Andhra Pradesh on Oct. 28, including “Total destruction of thatched houses” (IMD national bulletin).

Reports from the coast describe the first damage. At Kakinada, which forecasters had initially indicated as the possible landfall point, the wind picked up around 1:30 a.m. after more than two hours without rain on the coast, The Hindu reports; in Uppada, waves pushed stone boulders onto the road, and in Kakinada several boats tied to trees with ropes washed into the creek (The Hindu). In Dr. B.R. Ambedkar Konaseema district, scores of coconut trees fell along roadsides, and National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) crews worked to clear them, the paper says, adding: “No human loss has been reported in Kakinada, Dr. B.R. Ambedkar Konaseema and West Godavari districts” (The Hindu). India Today reports that police rescued four people stranded in floodwater near the Bombay Katta area of Kakinada, and that three people remained stranded at Central Water Commission godowns in Kakinada Anchorage Port after rainwater and seawater flooded the site and the power failed (India Today).

The heaviest rain fell farther north. Between 8:30 a.m. Tuesday and 1 a.m. Wednesday India time, Kannuripalem in Anakapalli district recorded 231.5 mm, and 12 stations in Visakhapatnam and Anakapalli districts topped 200 mm, while 188 stations across seven districts passed 100 mm, The Hindu reports (The Hindu). The IMD’s 1:10 a.m. bulletin listed 196.5 mm at Yellamanchilli and recorded winds of 87 km/h at Maruteru, in West Godavari, and 78 km/h at Bhimavaram around 12:30 a.m. India time (IMD bulletin 6). In Visakhapatnam, at least 200 trees came down within city limits, according to The Hindu (The Hindu).

The storm’s one reported death so far came in Visakhapatnam. A 65-year-old man died at Mangalapalem on Tuesday after contact with live electrical wires that had snapped and fallen into water, The Hindu reports, citing sources; Duvvada police moved the body to King George Hospital (The Hindu; The Hindu live page). This desk found no other confirmed deaths in the reports it read as of 7 p.m. PT Tuesday.

Officials began clearing parts of the coast on Monday, according to The Hindu (The Hindu). Naidu said 290 cyclone shelters had opened and 84,396 people had moved to safer locations; more than 30,000 fishing boats had returned from sea, and 93 Andhra Pradesh boats and their crews had reached safety at Gopalpur in Odisha, according to The Hindu (The Hindu). The state mobilised 8,400 personnel for power repairs and prepared for the possible collapse of up to 15,000 power poles, the paper says (The Hindu). India Today, citing the Andhra Pradesh State Disaster Management Authority (APSDMA), reports shelters at 2,131 locations across 20 districts, cyclone alerts sent to about 2.70 crore (27 million) people in 18 districts and 1,087 medical teams on standby (India Today). In Kakinada district, at least 89,000 people living along six coastal belts began moving to 101 relief camps, and all 130 residents of Hope Island, off the Kakinada coast, moved to Kakinada city on Monday, The Hindu reports (The Hindu). The Economic Times quotes Naidu: “I appeal to everyone to remain calm, stay alert and cooperate with the authorities” (The Economic Times).

Travel across the region stopped. Airlines cancelled at least 21 flights at Vijayawada and Visakhapatnam on Tuesday, and Vijayawada airport cancelled all flights on Wednesday as well, The Hindu reports (The Hindu). India Today counts at least 91 trains and 21 flights cancelled over Tuesday and Wednesday (India Today). In neighbouring Odisha, the state government began moving more than 48,000 people from vulnerable southern districts and shut several ghat roads over landslide fears, according to The Hindu, which quotes Special Relief Commissioner Rajesh Pravakar Patil: “We plan to shift 48,000 people from vulnerable places to safer place in the first phase in eight districts” (The Hindu). Authorities in Andhra Pradesh listed toll-free helplines 1070, 112 and 18004250101 (The Hindu).

What happens next depends on how fast Arnab moves inland. The IMD expected the storm to move slowly northwestward at first and then north-northwestward, with winds over the landfall area easing gradually after the next two to three hours (IMD bulletin 11). The Economic Times, citing officials, reports that rain and strong winds will likely continue after landfall ends (The Economic Times). Neither the IMD bulletins nor the news reports this desk read offer a damage estimate yet.